Winnipeg Home Price Index Update - AUGUST 2026: Data From JULY 2026
AUGUST 2026 HPI Update
Current 2026 Winnipeg Benchmark Price: $454,300 (was $463,900 last month)
Year to date: +3.60%
Month over month: -2.07%
From 2025 all-time high: +0.55%
Almost any way you slice it, July was not a good month for Winnipeg real estate. We saw the benchmark price fall just over 2% month over month, marking this the second worst July for the benchmark on a percentage basis since July 2022, where we experienced at 3.5% drop month over month.
So what’s going on here? Have prices just gotten too high? Has contagion from Toronto spread here? Or is there more at play than meets the eye?
It’s complicated, but let’s dive in!
Broader Context: What happened in July?
For those of you who have been following for a while, or who know me in real life, you’ll know July and August are two of my least favorite months of the year when it comes to selling real estate.
These months are usually the “supply crescendo” for the year, where there’s often more selection available for buyers than any other time of year, and buyer urgency typically bottoms out following the push to close for the school year upcoming.
The data this year was more stark than I anticipated. On a brighter note, supply didn’t increase notably year over year and the uptake ratios are better than many of our recent July’s.
The market definitely felt different in July, but with sellers and buyers adapting to the new dynamic, it seems there’s still plenty of opportunity for a healthy late season market to keep 2026 on track.
The Bank of Canada: Next announcement September 2nd
The July 15th announcement, as expect, brought no changes.
It’s almost to the point that no ones paying any attention to these again. This time, there was serious discussions about rates actually going up again.
I don’t see this as something particularly likely unless the situation gets dire. The cost of raising rates to slow or stop inflation would likely be too painful from an employment standpoint, and would exacerbate the already serious issues with defaults nationwide.
I anticipate no changes on Sept 2nd, and you should too.
Give me a call or send me a DM if you want to discuss your personal mortgage situation.
Country: How do we compare?
Winnipeg and Regina are neck in neck for the overall top performing Canadian market, but Wininpeg is slumping and Regina is ripping.
The big markets are still suffering, but most other places are at least levelling off or climbing slowly.
Accountability Check: How are my predictions doing?
On December 18th 2025, I predicted the July 2026 Benchmark price would be $466,000.
We’re sitting at $454,300 right now.
This year didn’t play out exactly the way I thought! We were hotter earlier, and the mid section didn’t ramp up quite the way I thought it might. There may be an opportunity for my estimates and reality to converge later in the year, but we’ll see!
Advice for Buyers and Sellers in Today’s Market
For Buyers:
You have more power now than you’ve had in a while! Don’t be shy to write on overpriced listings sitting idle on the market! Just 4 months ago it would have been crazy to think you’d be able to write super low on an owner occupied home, but it’s a great time to do it now! There’s plenty of stagnant overpriced supply that can likely be bought for a fair price. The offer date game is still being played, but in many cases, you can choose to opt out from this and go elsewhere.
For Sellers:
Be patient, prices haven’t actually changed much, but rate of uptake has. Most campaigns are going to be longer than a week, but there’s a lot of nuance and situational decisions that need to be made when pricing property these days.
For example, I recently posted a house in 4A, the North End, which is one of the worst areas by absorption and overall desirability citywide without an offer date. Final sale was achieved within 2 days on market. Pricing well is possibly the only thing that matters right now.
The supply data isn’t actually as bad as the pricing data might make things seem.
Overall, the rate of uptake of current listings is excellent compared to some recent Julys, and number of sales and listings overall isn’t wildly divergent either.
The main issue is the average sale price plummiting from 483k to 454k month over month, which is actually a bigger drop than 2022, where we saw the benchmark nosedive in the same month.
My takeaway from the supply data is somewhat reductionist, but I think too many sellers are asking for aspirational numbers which may have been possible if our growth cycle continued, but the market moved against them. Those who understand the shift have still managed to achieve solid outcomes.
Absorption Data:
The absorption chart, while still seller favored, has made a large move towards the buyer favored side of the chart.
This isn’t a seasonally typical move, especially considering the size, but it’s an important datapoint to consider as we move deeper into the year.
BIDDING WARS - OVER OR UNDER
This is the biggest divergence between homes selling above and below asking we’ve seen since the Winter months!
Pricing strategy has materially shifted in a way that was easy to see and feel over the course of the month, and I think it’s going to be the norm for quite some time.
Interestingly, this July dataset is pretty similar to what we saw in August 2025 almost exactly.
Author’s Note: Pricing strategy is highly personal and situational. Before making any pricing decisions—whether buying or selling—reach out for a free consultation:
SALES BY AREA REPORT
ANALYSIS
Here’s some of the hottest neighborhoods so far this year. Due to popular request, only areas with 90%+ absorption will be listed until further notice.
2H- Southdale - 91%
3F - North Kildonan Lower - 96%
3H - Springfield/All Seasons - 95%
4K - Tyndall Park West - 96%
5G - Westwood - 94%
5H - Crestview - 94%
Here’s a short list of neighborhoods I’m keeping a close eye on right now:
5C- Sargent Park- 86%
Considering a lot of Winnipeg hasn’t been performing particularly great, seeing 5C at 86% is somewhat surprising, and rather telling. An absorption rate this high alongside an average sale price of just under 300k indicates the low end segment of the market is still very lively and possibly even under pressured.
4G - Garden city- 80%
This section of Winnipeg + the surrounding areas were very recently among the hottest by absorption and pricing citywide, and lately have been cooling down a bit. With a recent listing in 4G, very close to 4F, I spent a fair bit of time thinking about the market dynamics in this part of town.
2H - Southdale - 91%
Southdale has been a generally hot area for quite some time, and I am actively shopping in it! This neighborhood is one of Winnipeg’s established family areas that has a huge variety in both products and pricing. Being located conviently in the South, I can see why the value proposition remains so strong even with the average sale price pushing up to 570k.
Takeaway:
Here are the key points from today’s market update:
The Benchmark Price fell 2.07% month over month to $454,300 - our third consecutive month of declining prices, and our largest July drop since 2022.
The supply data for July was actually relatively average seasonally, with no particular gain in supply, and no major deviation in buy side appetite
Pricing strategies have changed more rapidly in July than at any other point in 2026 so far.
