Winnipeg Home Price Index Update - MAY 2025: Data From APRIL 2025
By: Keenan Brown
Read & Subscribe here: https://winnipegmarketwatch.substack.com/
First Down Month of 2025 — Is the Party Over?
April 2025 delivered a rare surprise for Winnipeg real estate: the first monthly price decline of the year. After months of record-setting growth and strong demand, the city’s benchmark home price slid 0.86% from March, landing at $448,400.
So, is this just a blip—or are we seeing the beginning of a broader slowdown?
Let’s unpack the numbers, context, and what this means for buyers and sellers alike.
Quick Stats: Winnipeg Housing Market
Benchmark Price (April 2025): $448,400
(Down from $452,300 in March)YTD Price Growth: +8.07%
(Was 9.01% in March)MoM Change: -0.86%
(Was +3.92% last month)From 2024 High: +6.08%
From May 2022 Peak: +4.50%
What Happened in April?
April was anything but boring. Canada’s federal election resulted in a Liberal minority, shocking many and adding to an already uncertain economic climate. Meanwhile, equity and crypto markets took a hit—some portfolios dropped 12-20% in just weeks. For those relying on investment gains for down payments, that hurt.
Pair this with rate cut pauses from the Bank of Canada, and buyer momentum may have simply... paused.
🏦 Bank of Canada Update
On April 16, the BoC announced no change to the benchmark rate, the first pause after 7 straight cuts. Though Tiff Macklem hinted at further cuts later this year, buyers holding out for 3% mortgage rates will need to wait. Currently, the best rates remain in the upper 3% to low 4% range.
How Does Winnipeg Compare?
Despite April’s slight stumble, Winnipeg is still outperforming many other major cities:
Toronto & Vancouver continue to decline.
Calgary, Halifax, Montreal, and Edmonton are seeing gains equal to or better than Winnipeg.
Our affordability and consistency continue to be a major draw for buyers priced out of higher markets.
Accountability Check:
Back in December, I predicted:
April 2025 Benchmark: $456,600
May 2025 Benchmark: $467,200
I missed the April number by a bit—but May could still be within reach.
Advice for Buyers & Sellers
For Buyers:
Now is a rare moment of opportunity. If you’ve been frustrated by bidding wars or rising prices, things are cooling just enough to give you a chance.
Top Tips:
See everything — offer dates are vulnerable when listings get little traffic.
Don’t hesitate — fewer buyers may mean less competition.
Shop Wednesdays — houses that miss offer dates Monday/Tuesday may be wide open.
For Sellers:
This is still a strong seller’s market, but you’ll need to price smart.
Tips:
Attractive pricing with offer dates still works — but be cautious if your property has a niche appeal.
Study nearby sales over the last 7 days. Are homes selling over ask? Then go aggressive. If not, price closer to fair value.
Market Metrics: April 2025
📈 Absorption Rate: 2.19 Months
Strongest seller-favoring stat since 2022.
All property types are moving quickly.
🏡 Bidding Wars
58%+ of homes sold at or above asking.
9% sold exactly at asking, showing growing price accuracy.
Neighborhood Highlights
These areas are on fire, with 90–100%+ absorption rates:
1Aw - Lord Roberts: 100%
2E - Meadowood: 114%
2G - Windsor Park: 100%
3H - All Seasons: 95%
3J - Harbor View: 100%
4G - Garden City: 95%
4J - Tyndall Park West: 90%
Neighborhoods to Watch:
5C - Sargent Park (78%) – My “barometer” for market momentum.
1M - Lindenwoods (73%) – Low inventory, high prices.
2G - Windsor Park (100%) – Stellar absorption and near benchmark pricing.
Key Takeaways:
✅ Benchmark Price dipped 0.86% — rare for Spring.
✅ Supply increased, but demand remains strong.
✅ Bidding wars still dominate, though some homes are selling right at asking.
✅ Affordability remains a major barrier for first-time buyers.
